Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | SF -385 DEP +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +16 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | SF -5.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -5.7 (+10.3) | 133.8 (-9.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -4.4 (+11.6) | 133.8 (-9.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -4.1 (+11.9) | 134.9 (-10.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -4.9 (+11.1) | 136.2 (-12.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 0-20 |
| Home | 14-2 | 3-15 |
| Away | 6-6 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L20 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#88) | -0.9 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#214) | -0.92 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#196) | -0.80 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#230) | 0.517 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.1% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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