Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -500 ELON +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -7.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -5.0 (+3.0) | 147.2 (+0.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -4.7 (+3.3) | 148.4 (-0.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -4.6 (+3.4) | 150.4 (-2.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -5.6 (+2.4) | 146.5 (+1.5) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2021 | ELON 63 – 61 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#146) | -6.0 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#280) | 0.02 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#282) | -0.37 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#206) | 0.414 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 46.2% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 40.4% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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