Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +2 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -6.2 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (-38.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -7.1 (+9.1) | 147.9 (-23.9) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -5.8 (+7.8) | 154.4 (-30.4) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -6.4 (+8.4) | 154.6 (-30.6) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -5.0 (+7.0) | 155.1 (-31.1) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2023 | WIN 78 – 70 ELON |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#326) | 0.6 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.98 (#352) | 0.67 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.18 (#351) | 0.64 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#322) | 0.540 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.7% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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