Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
| Money | IU +500 CONN -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +20 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -19.4 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -13.5 (-6.5) | 149.2 (-15.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -11.0 (-9.0) | 148.0 (-14.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -12.2 (-7.8) | 144.7 (-10.7) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -13.0 (-7.0) | 145.5 (-11.5) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 18-2 |
| Home | 12-5 | 17-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 12-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W13 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 63.4 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#279) | 13.7 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#140) | 1.62 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#147) | 2.95 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#248) | 0.561 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.4% | 54.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 44.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 15.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 62.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 47.4% |
| FT Rate | 38.3% | 34.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 39.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.4% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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