Betting Lines
| Spread | BYU -31.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BYU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BYU +43 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | BYU -41.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BYU -28.2 (+14.8) | 157.3 (-14.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BYU -26.1 (+16.9) | 160.7 (-17.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BYU -38.4 (+4.6) | 158.7 (-15.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BYU -40.2 (+2.8) | 154.0 (-11.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BYU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-7 |
| Home | 16-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 80.0 |
| Massey | 19.2 (#6) | -14.1 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#53) | -0.92 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#39) | -1.46 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#98) | 0.339 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BYU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 51.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.43 | 0.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 41.3% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.0% | 62.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 85.1% | 56.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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