Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | NMSU -345 UNCO +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -9.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -4.4 (+0.6) | 140.6 (+6.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -6.2 (-1.2) | 141.5 (+5.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -4.2 (+0.8) | 140.9 (+6.1) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 1-13 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#310) | -9.1 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#228) | -1.03 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#212) | -0.94 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#279) | 0.583 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 13.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.6% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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