Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
| Money | LOU +1050 TEX -2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +1 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | TEX -15.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -13.9 (+12.9) | 144.9 (+16.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -9.9 (+8.9) | 143.1 (+17.9) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -10.9 (+9.9) | 143.7 (+17.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -9.4 (+8.4) | 146.0 (+15.0) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-11 | 14-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 68.9 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#309) | 7.9 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#218) | 1.01 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#255) | 1.43 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#196) | 0.521 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 54.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.4% | 45.7% |
| REB / G | 44.3 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 64.0% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 41.1% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 38.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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