Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | UVU +118 USM -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +2 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UVU -4.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVU -3.0 (-1.0) | 132.0 (+0.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVU -3.1 (-1.1) | 131.1 (+0.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVU -3.5 (-1.5) | 131.6 (+0.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#131) | -2.6 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#63) | -0.27 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#49) | -0.35 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#137) | 0.500 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 17.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 5.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 81.3% | 85.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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