Betting Lines
| Spread | COR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | CSUF +230 COR -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COR +18 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | COR -13.6 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COR -10.0 (-8.0) | 143.6 (+14.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COR -8.5 (-9.5) | 141.9 (+16.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COR -9.4 (-8.6) | 140.7 (+17.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COR -8.9 (-9.1) | 142.6 (+15.4) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | COR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 22-8 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-3 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-1 |
| Away | 6-10 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#293) | 7.3 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#240) | 2.32 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#234) | 3.37 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#261) | 0.678 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | COR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 28.6% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 18.6% | 41.6% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.45 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 32.1% | 58.1% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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