Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UGA +170 PROV -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -4.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -4.0 (-3.0) | 140.0 (-5.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -2.9 (-4.1) | 133.8 (+1.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -2.9 (-4.1) | 135.4 (-0.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -3.0 (-4.0) | 139.7 (-4.7) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-6 | 14-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#223) | 2.6 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#167) | -0.06 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#160) | -0.15 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#95) | 0.537 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 38.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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