Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | COLG -115 WEB -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +2 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | WEB -8.3 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WEB -4.9 (+6.9) | 129.0 (-17.0) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -4.9 (+6.9) | 128.1 (-16.1) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WEB -4.6 (+6.6) | 127.0 (-15.0) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WEB -5.8 (+7.8) | 127.2 (-15.2) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 10-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#243) | 5.2 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#156) | 0.96 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#191) | 2.46 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#215) | 0.554 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 20.9% | 17.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 12.1% |
Game Analysis
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