Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 116.5 Under |
| Money | TOW +178 UNT -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +26 | 104 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -2.7 (-28.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -1.3 (-24.7) | 118.7 (-14.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -1.1 (-27.1) | 123.1 (-19.1) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -1.1 (-27.1) | 124.0 (-20.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -0.7 (-26.7) | 121.6 (-17.6) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 64.4 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#142) | -1.1 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#253) | -1.81 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#263) | -2.30 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#253) | 0.363 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 41.2% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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