Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | USU -175 MRSH +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +23 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | USU -3.0 (+20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -2.7 (+20.3) | 152.6 (-9.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -1.2 (+21.8) | 147.5 (-4.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -1.1 (+21.9) | 150.2 (-7.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -0.7 (+22.3) | 153.3 (-10.3) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 8-7 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#119) | -0.2 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#166) | -0.67 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#169) | -0.93 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#217) | 0.406 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 82.3% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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