Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | GWEB +333 YALE -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GWEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +1 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | YALE -5.3 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -5.0 (+4.0) | 134.2 (+6.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -2.9 (+1.9) | 136.0 (+5.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -3.3 (+2.3) | 136.9 (+4.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -3.7 (+2.7) | 138.9 (+2.1) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GWEB | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 11-3 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-2 |
| Away | 6-8 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 68.9 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#207) | 3.9 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#180) | 0.80 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#276) | 1.27 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#131) | 0.614 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GWEB | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 24.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 11.5% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 19.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.9% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.4% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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