Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -120 CLT +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +5 | 103 | Lost |
| Massey | CLT -0.6 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -0.7 (-5.7) | 123.9 (-20.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -0.1 (-4.9) | 127.2 (-24.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -0.8 (-4.2) | 125.9 (-22.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -0.4 (-4.6) | 123.8 (-20.8) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#90) | 5.2 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#30) | 1.35 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#30) | 2.57 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.722 (#19) | 0.704 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 11.7% |
Game Analysis
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