Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | UAPB -250 UIW +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +19 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | UAPB -13.7 (-32.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -5.9 (-24.9) | 162.6 (+18.4) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -10.5 (-29.5) | 162.2 (+18.8) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAPB -7.7 (-26.7) | 159.1 (+21.9) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAPB -6.4 (-25.4) | 162.2 (+18.8) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | UIW 92 – 64 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-8 |
| Away | 5-12 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.7 | 79.3 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#203) | -6.6 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#97) | -0.77 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#105) | -1.08 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#155) | 0.514 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 29.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 23.2% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 43.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 18.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 33.7% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 42.5% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 59.4% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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