Betting Lines
| Spread | W&M -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | W&M -333 LIN +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIN +11 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | W&M -10.6 (-21.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | W&M -6.7 (-17.7) | 145.6 (-14.6) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -5.5 (-16.5) | 147.5 (-16.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -5.0 (-16.0) | 148.0 (-17.0) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -6.0 (-17.0) | 147.1 (-16.1) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 3-15 |
| Home | 7-7 | 4-10 |
| Away | 2-13 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#153) | -9.7 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#307) | 0.07 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#312) | -0.26 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#258) | 0.526 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 35.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 39.7% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.1% | 36.5% |
Game Analysis
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