Betting Lines
| Spread | HC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | IUIN +130 HC -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IUIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +13 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | HC -1.8 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -1.0 (-12.0) | 134.7 (+0.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -1.1 (-11.9) | 138.7 (-3.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HC -1.4 (-11.6) | 140.5 (-5.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -1.8 (-11.2) | 137.8 (-2.8) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IUIN | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 6-12 |
| Home | 4-10 | 5-8 |
| Away | 2-13 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -9.3 (#328) | -7.4 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#294) | -1.36 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.73 (#318) | -2.82 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.338 (#317) | 0.340 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IUIN | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 21.1% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 14.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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