Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | VT -3300 WOF +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +22 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | VT -17.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -14.9 (+7.1) | 155.3 (+18.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -16.5 (+5.5) | 156.3 (+17.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -19.7 (+2.3) | 154.5 (+19.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -18.9 (+3.1) | 153.3 (+20.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#57) | -2.0 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#203) | 0.18 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#202) | 0.03 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#227) | 0.465 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.43 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 11.7% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 60.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 48.3% |
Game Analysis
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