Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
| Money | DRKE -430 OAK +328 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +8 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | DRKE -3.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -2.4 (+5.6) | 141.4 (+20.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -1.5 (+6.5) | 140.1 (+21.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -1.0 (+7.0) | 139.5 (+22.5) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-0 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#62) | 3.0 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#95) | -0.71 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#91) | -1.07 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#49) | 0.505 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.9% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 81.2% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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