Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | ECU -385 NE +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +6 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | ECU -6.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -5.4 (-11.4) | 139.4 (+18.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -3.9 (-9.9) | 146.4 (+11.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -4.9 (-10.9) | 147.3 (+10.7) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -4.2 (-10.2) | 144.4 (+13.6) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-9 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#255) | -1.7 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#325) | 0.20 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.92 (#324) | 0.78 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.325 (#326) | 0.526 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 42.5% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.3% | 12.7% |
Game Analysis
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