Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -135 WASH +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WASH +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -4.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -3.6 (-6.6) | 148.1 (-3.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -2.1 (-5.1) | 143.9 (+1.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -2.5 (-5.5) | 145.9 (-0.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -3.0 (-6.0) | 148.3 (-3.3) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 80.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#47) | 4.4 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#135) | -0.56 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#135) | -0.79 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#89) | 0.426 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 52.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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