Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | COLG -163 GWEB +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +7 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | GWEB -6.9 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GWEB -3.7 (+10.7) | 134.0 (-23.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GWEB -3.6 (+10.6) | 133.1 (-22.1) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GWEB -4.0 (+11.0) | 133.3 (-22.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GWEB -3.0 (+10.0) | 136.7 (-25.7) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 10-5 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#272) | 2.0 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#247) | 1.39 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#253) | 1.76 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#244) | 0.732 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 23.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 13.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.1% | 42.2% |
Game Analysis
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