Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Fairfield Stags
63 – 69
FINAL Neutral Market Street Challenge
Queens University Royals
Daskalakis Athletic Center (Neutral) · November 18, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread QUC -3.5 Away covered
O/U 153.5 Under
Money FAIR +175 / QUC -163
Model Predictions
Spread Total FAIR win
Actual QUC +6 132 Lost
Massey FAIR -5.4 (-11.4) — —
Massey Totals — 163.7 (-31.7) —
Bradley-Terry — — 60% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 75% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ FAIR -1.3 (-7.3) 153.0 (-21.0) 45% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML FAIR -2.9 (-8.9) 151.0 (-19.0) 60% ✗
Baseline ML FAIR -2.5 (-8.5) 149.7 (-17.7) 55% ✗
Baseline Plus ML FAIR -2.7 (-8.7) 152.3 (-20.3) 55% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FAIR QUC
Overall 24-13 14-19
Conference 14-6 7-9
Home 10-4 11-3
Away 10-6 2-16
Neutral 4-3 1-0
Last 5 0-3 1-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.1 77.3
Avg Pts Against 71.7 82.6
Massey -1.2 (#201) -6.6 (#297)
Bradley-Terry -0.56 (#217) -0.97 (#261)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.75 (#215) -1.84 (#282)
RPI 0.542 (#138) 0.302 (#316)
Shooting & Four Factors FAIR QUC
FG% 37.5% 39.8%
3PT% 36.5% 30.3%
REB / G 35.0 35.0
OREB / G 13.5 11.7
AST / TO 0.86 0.97
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.0% 46.0%
TOV% 18.3% 17.6%
ORB% 29.3% 28.5%
FT Rate 18.4% 23.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 58.3% 53.7%
Opp TOV% 21.9% 15.1%
DRB% 57.3% 62.5%
Opp FT Rate 21.2% 16.7%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.