Betting Lines
| Spread | QUC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR +175 QUC -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | QUC +6 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -5.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.7 (-31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -1.3 (-7.3) | 153.0 (-21.0) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -2.9 (-8.9) | 151.0 (-19.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -2.5 (-8.5) | 149.7 (-17.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -2.7 (-8.7) | 152.3 (-20.3) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 10-6 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 82.6 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#201) | -6.6 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#217) | -0.97 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#215) | -1.84 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#138) | 0.302 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.3% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 57.3% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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