Betting Lines
| Spread | UTEP -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UTEP -455 APSU +345 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTEP +8 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UTEP -13.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTEP -12.6 (-4.6) | 135.0 (-1.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTEP -15.4 (-7.4) | 135.6 (-1.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTEP -15.0 (-7.0) | 133.7 (+0.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTEP | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 10-6 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#164) | -3.6 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#144) | -0.13 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#143) | -0.10 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#181) | 0.750 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTEP | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.0% | 28.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 15.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.57 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 31.4% |
| TOV% | 9.4% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 13.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.4% | 34.0% |
Game Analysis
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