Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | WEB +200 YALE -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WEB +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | YALE -1.9 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -2.7 (+12.7) | 129.5 (+10.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -1.6 (+11.6) | 131.3 (+8.7) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -1.1 (+11.1) | 132.8 (+7.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -1.2 (+11.2) | 127.7 (+12.3) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WEB | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-3 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-2 |
| Away | 7-7 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#95) | 6.3 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#121) | 1.55 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#94) | 2.08 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#98) | 0.721 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WEB | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 22.0% | 41.5% |
| REB / G | 24.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 4.5 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 11.7% |
| ORB% | 14.3% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.5% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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