Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | FGCU +100 MOST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +9 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -1.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -0.1 (-8.9) | 140.4 (-9.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -0.4 (-9.4) | 139.1 (-8.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -0.3 (-8.7) | 138.6 (-7.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -0.8 (-9.8) | 139.7 (-8.7) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#120) | 1.6 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#223) | -0.79 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#216) | -1.28 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#160) | 0.292 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 11.9% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 10.8% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 41.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 11.8% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.9% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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