Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -1600 JAX +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +51 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -24.8 (+26.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -20.8 (+30.2) | 153.5 (+9.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -19.8 (+31.2) | 151.2 (+11.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -25.9 (+25.1) | 150.5 (+12.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -26.9 (+24.1) | 152.9 (+10.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2021 | PITT 64 – 55 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#14) | -2.5 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#54) | -0.32 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#44) | -0.60 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#138) | 0.354 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 50.0 | 43.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 41.8% | 41.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.3% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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