Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 118.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +9 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -1.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 107.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -1.7 (+7.3) | 121.7 (-2.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -0.7 (+8.3) | 121.1 (-2.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -0.2 (+9.2) | 122.9 (-3.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -0.2 (+8.8) | 124.0 (-5.0) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2023 | PITT 107 – 56 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#237) | 2.7 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#243) | 0.40 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#268) | 0.15 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#202) | 0.521 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 79.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.