Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.0 Over |
| Money | STAN -900 EWU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +25 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -14.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -9.1 (+15.9) | 157.4 (+7.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -10.8 (+14.2) | 156.6 (+8.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -11.3 (+13.7) | 158.0 (+7.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -10.4 (+14.6) | 158.1 (+6.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 10-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#185) | -5.4 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#138) | -0.83 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#124) | -1.11 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#110) | 0.503 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 24.0% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.12 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 11.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 19.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.8% | 34.1% |
Game Analysis
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