Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
| Money | URI +335 NU -440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +11 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | URI -5.9 (-16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -1.5 (-9.5) | 129.2 (+3.8) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -2.1 (-13.1) | 136.9 (-3.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | URI -2.3 (-13.3) | 135.9 (-2.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -0.7 (-11.7) | 131.2 (+1.8) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#110) | -2.3 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#97) | 2.07 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#101) | 3.05 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#222) | 0.666 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.5% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 43.7 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 27.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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