Betting Lines
| Spread | ELON -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ELON -150 IUIN +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +14 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | IUIN -6.4 (+20.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IUIN -3.7 (+17.7) | 144.7 (+13.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IUIN -3.8 (+17.8) | 144.8 (+13.2) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IUIN -4.0 (+18.0) | 145.8 (+12.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IUIN -4.0 (+18.0) | 144.5 (+13.5) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 2-18 |
| Home | 8-6 | 4-10 |
| Away | 3-11 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 81.2 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#326) | -3.3 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#271) | 1.08 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#286) | 1.37 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.194 (#351) | 0.550 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 44.4% | 17.9% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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