Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -29.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -20000 MER +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +31 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -28.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -24.8 (+6.2) | 148.2 (+16.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -19.8 (+11.2) | 154.1 (+10.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -25.6 (+5.4) | 150.7 (+14.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -25.4 (+5.6) | 149.0 (+16.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.1 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 22.2 (#2) | 2.2 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#44) | 0.82 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#34) | 0.95 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.816 (#7) | 0.412 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.2% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 50.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 66.2% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 43.3% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 43.2% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 31.1% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 46.7% |
Game Analysis
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