Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MONM +350 PRIN -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +25 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | MONM -5.5 (-30.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -3.8 (-21.2) | 133.8 (+5.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -3.9 (-28.9) | 138.4 (+0.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -2.6 (-27.6) | 136.2 (+2.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -1.4 (-26.4) | 134.4 (+4.6) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | MONM 63 – 58 PRIN |
| Dec 11, 2024 | PRIN 71 – 67 MONM |
| Dec 11, 2022 | PRIN 91 – 54 MONM |
| Nov 25, 2021 | MONM 76 – 64 PRIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 24-5 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-2 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-1 |
| Away | 2-13 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#72) | 9.4 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#40) | 3.52 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#39) | 4.85 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.842 (#5) | 0.753 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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