Betting Lines
| Spread | SIUE -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | NICH +210 SIUE -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIUE +9 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | NICH -4.6 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-33.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NICH -2.3 (-11.3) | 140.4 (-29.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NICH -1.7 (-10.7) | 138.6 (-27.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NICH -1.4 (-10.4) | 137.4 (-26.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NICH -1.9 (-10.9) | 140.0 (-29.0) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NICH | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#111) | -1.1 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#86) | 1.14 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#95) | 1.75 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#102) | 0.584 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NICH | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 42.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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