Betting Lines
| Spread | RUTG -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
| Money | RUTG -1400 HOW +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RUTG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RUTG +22 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | RUTG -11.7 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RUTG -10.6 (+11.4) | 136.7 (+11.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RUTG -8.2 (+13.8) | 138.1 (+9.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RUTG -9.5 (+12.5) | 138.7 (+9.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RUTG -9.9 (+12.1) | 140.6 (+7.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RUTG | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-5 |
| Home | 12-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#133) | -0.7 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#155) | -0.57 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#156) | -0.79 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#205) | 0.460 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RUTG | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 39.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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