Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UMES +500 PENN -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +3 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -2.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -6.0 (+9.0) | 144.0 (+19.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -5.8 (+8.8) | 139.5 (+23.5) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -5.0 (+8.0) | 139.0 (+24.0) | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -6.3 (+9.3) | 140.5 (+22.5) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2024 | PENN 85 – 84 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 3-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 0-15 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.1 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#314) | 3.2 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#350) | 0.64 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.27 (#352) | 0.86 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.302 (#316) | 0.664 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 23.3% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 43.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.3% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.9% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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