Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -1000 UNCG +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +6 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -19.5 (-25.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -12.0 (-18.0) | 154.8 (-4.8) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -16.4 (-22.4) | 154.8 (-4.8) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -18.5 (-24.5) | 154.5 (-4.5) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -17.4 (-23.4) | 156.2 (-6.2) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2022 | ARK 65 – 58 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#43) | -1.9 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#53) | -0.53 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#51) | -1.19 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#142) | 0.424 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.7% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 35.8% | 11.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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