Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +7 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -24.2 (-17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -19.3 (-12.3) | 133.2 (-10.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -19.5 (-12.5) | 139.1 (-16.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -21.7 (-14.7) | 138.0 (-15.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -21.7 (-14.7) | 138.9 (-15.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2023 | UNCG 78 – 72 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#19) | -5.5 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#34) | -0.48 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#33) | -0.44 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#37) | 0.451 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.9% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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