Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | IUIN +600 WIN -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IUIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +13 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -4.2 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -1.5 (-11.5) | 138.9 (-3.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -2.2 (-10.8) | 138.0 (-3.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -2.0 (-11.0) | 141.7 (-6.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -2.8 (-10.2) | 138.3 (-3.3) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IUIN | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 8-8 |
| Home | 4-10 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L12 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#244) | 0.8 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#91) | -1.87 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#102) | -2.49 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#128) | 0.420 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IUIN | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 17.9% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.1% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 37.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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