Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | SBU +430 AUB -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +17 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -6.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -6.6 (-10.4) | 141.6 (-4.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -4.2 (-12.8) | 142.8 (-5.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -3.8 (-13.2) | 143.2 (-6.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -3.1 (-13.9) | 144.9 (-7.9) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#240) | 3.0 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#213) | 0.73 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#211) | 1.38 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#198) | 0.595 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 41.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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