I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
Oregon Ducks
92 – 67
FINAL Emerald Coast Classic
Tennessee State Tigers
Matthew Knight Arena · November 18, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread ORE -19.0 Home covered
O/U 149.0 Over
Money ORE -2000 / TNST +1050
Model Predictions
Spread Total ORE win
Actual ORE +25 159 Won
Massey ORE -3.9 (+21.1) — —
Massey Totals — 144.7 (+14.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 59% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 43% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML ORE -5.5 (+19.5) 142.1 (+16.9) 59% ✓
Baseline ML ORE -11.2 (+13.8) 139.9 (+19.1) 72% ✓
Baseline Plus ML ORE -8.3 (+16.7) 143.0 (+16.0) 74% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ORE TNST
Overall 24-12 18-15
Conference 12-8 10-8
Home 13-3 11-3
Away 6-5 5-10
Neutral 5-4 2-2
Last 5 2-0 1-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.6 70.2
Avg Pts Against 72.3 72.2
Massey 2.7 (#125) 7.6 (#53)
Bradley-Terry 1.50 (#62) 2.75 (#14)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.16 (#66) 4.48 (#10)
RPI 0.717 (#35) 0.812 (#8)
Shooting & Four Factors ORE TNST
FG% 41.9% 47.4%
3PT% 34.2% 41.7%
REB / G 54.0 37.0
OREB / G 16.5 11.0
AST / TO 1.53 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.7% 56.1%
TOV% 11.6% 24.4%
ORB% 35.9% 34.4%
FT Rate 22.1% 19.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 41.9% 47.1%
Opp TOV% 14.5% 25.0%
DRB% 84.3% 76.5%
Opp FT Rate 23.6% 33.3%

Game Analysis

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