Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -19.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
| Money | ORE -2000 TNST +1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +25 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -3.9 (+21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -5.5 (+19.5) | 142.1 (+16.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -11.2 (+13.8) | 139.9 (+19.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -8.3 (+16.7) | 143.0 (+16.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#125) | 7.6 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#62) | 2.75 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#66) | 4.48 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.717 (#35) | 0.812 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 54.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 11.6% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 25.0% |
| DRB% | 84.3% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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