Betting Lines
| Spread | SC -5.0 Push |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SC +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | SC -11.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SC -8.1 (+3.1) | 136.0 (+5.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SC -8.1 (+3.1) | 136.4 (+4.6) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SC -8.0 (+3.0) | 138.1 (+2.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SC -9.2 (+4.2) | 137.0 (+4.0) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | SC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 13-5 |
| Home | 3-15 | 14-3 |
| Away | 0-11 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L20 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#250) | 7.3 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#293) | 1.70 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#274) | 1.91 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#236) | 0.667 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | SC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 43.9% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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