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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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69–19 on winners spread MAE 6.8 88 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Valparaiso @ Missouri State +8.6 145.6 81% 58–67 ✓
Richmond @ St. Bonaventure +4.0 141.0 70% 65–72 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH) +4.9 150.6 70% 63–76 ✓
Central Michigan @ Akron +13.1 140.4 88% 56–57 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +4.7 141.8 68% 53–81 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Murray State +13.9 150.8 87% 74–88 ✓
Ohio @ Northern Illinois -7.6 140.7 21% 57–58 ✗
Campbell @ Gardner-Webb +2.1 130.1 58% 53–54 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ BYU +9.4 146.4 82% 60–85 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Drake +3.4 131.1 65% 52–65 ✓
Morehead State @ Belmont +5.3 140.8 70% 53–51 ✗
Utah State @ San José State -10.9 141.0 16% 75–52 ✓
San Diego @ Portland +2.3 138.6 61% 55–73 ✓
Villanova @ Butler -10.4 133.4 17% 78–59 ✓
Arkansas @ Tennessee +6.3 140.4 74% 74–78 ✓
Alabama @ LSU +6.7 151.3 74% 77–80 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood +6.9 141.8 77% 70–79 ✓
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +10.0 146.7 83% 66–71 ✓
Virginia @ Louisville -1.8 130.8 40% 71–61 ✓
Boston College @ Georgia Tech +2.6 135.7 62% 78–82 ✓
Louisiana @ Texas State +4.1 135.9 67% 79–72 ✗
Davidson @ Dayton +2.3 131.9 60% 76–82 ✓
South Carolina @ Auburn +13.0 149.9 87% 71–82 ✓
Miami @ Syracuse +0.9 157.2 56% 75–72 ✗
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +6.4 130.1 76% 41–57 ✓
Marist @ Niagara +1.0 134.7 55% 52–83 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Iona +13.4 149.1 88% 61–79 ✓
Kentucky @ Florida -3.9 145.4 33% 71–63 ✓
Indiana @ Purdue +9.9 145.1 83% 67–69 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Old Dominion -2.5 134.3 35% 64–68 ✗
Florida International @ Florida Atlantic +10.5 140.4 84% 76–84 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Clemson -0.6 136.9 49% 59–63 ✗
NC State @ Florida State +5.9 148.6 73% 76–89 ✓
Dartmouth @ Harvard +2.5 134.4 64% 76–54 ✗
TCU @ West Virginia +1.4 138.8 52% 64–70 ✓
George Washington @ Fordham +4.2 138.2 69% 66–70 ✓
La Salle @ Duquesne +0.3 137.8 50% 85–76 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +1.6 139.7 59% 67–76 ✓
VMI @ Wofford +3.6 145.8 65% 66–68 ✓
Seton Hall @ Creighton +1.6 138.6 58% 65–60 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame +12.4 137.8 88% 54–78 ✓
Rhode Island @ Saint Joseph's +1.1 133.7 53% 60–70 ✓
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State -2.8 132.7 36% 51–52 ✗
Little Rock @ Troy +8.0 136.1 80% 62–69 ✓
East Carolina @ Wichita State +9.2 140.9 81% 62–70 ✓
Stanford @ Arizona State +5.4 130.4 72% 56–65 ✓
Rice @ UTSA -3.5 149.1 31% 71–82 ✗
North Texas @ UTEP -4.9 124.7 26% 68–70 ✗
Marshall @ Western Kentucky +11.2 156.6 85% 69–78 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UAB +7.9 145.1 77% 74–87 ✓
Charlotte @ Southern Miss -7.6 143.3 21% 70–67 ✓
California Baptist @ Lamar -9.1 134.7 20% 78–66 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Northern Iowa -5.6 144.1 31% 66–43 ✓
Georgia @ Missouri +5.4 144.0 71% 69–79 ✓
Texas @ Kansas +6.4 144.9 73% 63–70 ✓
Oregon @ Washington State +3.8 142.5 67% 74–94 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Bakersfield -6.1 128.9 23% 66–61 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Florida A&M +3.9 133.7 65% 73–84 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State -1.7 162.5 39% 85–80 ✓
Chicago State @ Seattle U +15.4 141.2 89% 66–74 ✓
Cornell @ Columbia -9.4 155.9 17% 78–64 ✓
Oklahoma @ Kansas State +1.4 137.9 58% 78–71 ✗
VCU @ Saint Louis +2.2 137.1 58% 65–69 ✓
Massachusetts @ George Mason +7.5 149.8 78% 83–80 ✗
Siena @ Canisius +1.5 137.9 57% 64–67 ✓
Monmouth @ Rider -3.1 135.3 34% 65–74 ✗
Fresno State @ Wyoming +4.7 128.9 69% 64–68 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Nicholls +5.5 153.6 74% 85–92 ✓
California @ Arizona +17.3 146.0 90% 61–89 ✓
DePaul @ UConn +11.3 147.3 86% 68–75 ✓
Northeastern @ William & Mary -7.2 133.0 23% 68–63 ✓
Southern @ Alabama A&M -3.8 133.1 33% 50–49 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho +2.3 147.8 61% 69–78 ✓
Portland State @ Eastern Washington +4.9 152.8 70% 75–83 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Incarnate Word -5.6 145.3 27% 77–68 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama State +1.6 146.7 56% 75–78 ✓
Iowa State @ Baylor +11.0 135.3 86% 68–75 ✓
North Carolina @ Duke +12.2 157.8 85% 94–81 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Bryant +6.5 143.9 75% 69–70 ✓
Arkansas State @ Georgia State +1.1 135.5 56% 62–65 ✓
Drake @ Missouri State +1.3 143.8 56% 79–78 ✗
Bellarmine @ Liberty +8.3 141.9 79% 53–50 ✗
Mercer @ Furman +7.6 144.0 77% 66–80 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alcorn State +11.3 144.6 87% 77–100 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana State +5.9 153.4 74% 85–87 ✓
Princeton @ Pennsylvania -2.4 154.5 41% 93–70 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss +1.5 141.9 55% 63–61 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Jackson State +12.0 137.9 87% 69–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.