Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +28 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MER -5.5 (+22.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -4.3 (+23.7) | 140.9 (-6.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -4.7 (+23.3) | 141.8 (-7.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -4.5 (+23.5) | 142.4 (-8.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -4.2 (+23.8) | 142.0 (-8.0) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | WCU 77 – 73 MER |
| Feb 26, 2026 | WCU 78 – 74 MER |
| Jan 22, 2026 | MER 88 – 76 WCU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MER 67 – 66 WCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MER 81 – 69 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#210) | -7.7 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#166) | -0.66 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#179) | -0.87 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#155) | 0.456 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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