Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | NIU +400 OHIO -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +1 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -9.6 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -10.3 (+11.3) | 142.6 (-27.6) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -7.6 (+8.6) | 140.7 (-25.7) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -8.7 (+9.7) | 141.4 (-26.4) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -8.7 (+9.7) | 142.6 (-27.6) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | OHIO 74 – 66 NIU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OHIO 80 – 77 NIU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OHIO 108 – 70 NIU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | OHIO 80 – 59 NIU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | OHIO 78 – 66 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 3-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-11 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#306) | 3.5 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#289) | 1.11 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#286) | 1.20 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#303) | 0.559 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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