Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +2 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -6.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -5.4 (-3.4) | 152.0 (+20.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -5.9 (-3.9) | 153.4 (+18.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -6.0 (-4.0) | 156.2 (+15.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -6.0 (-4.0) | 154.6 (+17.4) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MTST 73 – 68 UNCO |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MTST 89 – 75 UNCO |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNCO 72 – 45 MTST |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UNCO 73 – 66 MTST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 82 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 22-16 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 9-6 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 78.0 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#145) | -2.6 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#117) | -0.07 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#114) | -0.15 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#73) | 0.526 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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