Texas State
Bobcats
72
–
79
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Hercules Tires Sun Belt
Louisiana
Ragin' Cajuns
Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +7 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -3.2 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -3.0 (-10.0) | 131.7 (+19.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -4.1 (-11.1) | 135.9 (+15.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -3.7 (-10.7) | 136.6 (+14.4) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -4.2 (-11.2) | 134.8 (+16.2) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UL 67 – 54 TXST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TXST 59 – 54 UL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UL 70 – 61 TXST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | TXST 89 – 74 UL |
| Jan 28, 2024 | UL 66 – 46 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-8 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 8-9 |
| Home | 12-1 | 7-6 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#137) | -1.4 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#83) | -0.28 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#102) | -0.26 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#69) | 0.488 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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