Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +23 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | PRIN -2.5 (-20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -2.2 (-20.8) | 152.3 (+10.7) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRIN -2.4 (-20.6) | 154.5 (+8.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRIN -3.0 (-20.0) | 155.3 (+7.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRIN -2.1 (-20.9) | 156.4 (+6.6) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | PENN 61 – 60 PRIN |
| Jan 6, 2026 | PRIN 78 – 76 PENN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | PRIN 95 – 71 PENN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | PRIN 61 – 59 PENN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | PRIN 105 – 83 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 23-7 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 12-2 |
| Home | 6-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-10 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#202) | 3.6 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#192) | 1.07 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#191) | 1.02 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#159) | 0.545 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 14.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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