Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -12.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -13.1 (-6.1) | 133.4 (+9.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -11.0 (-4.0) | 135.3 (+7.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -11.2 (-4.2) | 134.7 (+8.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -11.4 (-4.4) | 133.3 (+9.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ISU 72 – 69 BAY |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ISU 70 – 60 BAY |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ISU 74 – 55 BAY |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ISU 76 – 62 BAY |
| Feb 4, 2024 | BAY 70 – 68 ISU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 62.5 |
| Massey | 19.8 (#4) | 10.3 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.60 (#2) | 2.33 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.34 (#3) | 2.77 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#12) | 0.542 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 24.9% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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